Forecasting the Dragon: Superforecasting Against Bloomberg's China and Midterm Data Avant-Garde · Forecasting Science & Political Economy Series Forecasting the Dragon: Calibrating Superforecasting Against Bloomberg's China and Midterm Data Reading Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner's Superforecasting against two live 2026 tournaments no one designed on purpose — China's quarterly GDP surprises and the Bloomberg Politics midterm forecast — to ask whether "foxy" probabilistic thinking actually beats the hedgehogs when the stakes are real. Primary Source Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Crown, 2015) Data Bloomberg Intelligence · Bloomberg News (Politics & Economics) · NBS China Cross-References "The Trojan Economy" · "Breakneck Meets the Trojan Economy," Avant-Garde, 2026 Tetlock and Gardner's central claim is not that some pe...